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Arlanda vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 10 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 17:30

Arlanda

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Gefle

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 63.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+11.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.0%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-18.6%1-22.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.2%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.9%3-16.6%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-15.9%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 57.1% 1.75 +10.1%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 15.2% 25.0% 4.00 -23.5%

Over 2.5 52.5% 56.5% 1.77 -7.1%

Over 3.5 31.8% 33.9% 2.95 -6.2%

BTTS 47.2% 59.9% 1.67 -21.2%

Home O1.5 63.5% 57.1% 1.75 +11.1%

Away O1.5 14.5% 33.3% 3.00 -33.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 63% / xG 2.2-0.7 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 3–0 9.9%

#4 1–1 8.6%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arlanda2.2

Gefle0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ARLANDA · PPG 1.50

GEFLE · PPG 0.20

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=62.9%

Win probability 1X2

Arlanda (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +10.1%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Gefle (A) 15.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arlanda face Gefle in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arlanda a 63% chance, the draw 22% and Gefle 15%, so Arlanda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Arlanda and 0.7 for Gefle (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arlanda are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.20 for Gefle. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +24.0%. This match finished 2-3.

Arlanda vs Gefle Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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