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Skovde AIK vs Jonkopings Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 10 ·Monday, June 1, 2026, 17:00

Skovde AIK

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Jonkopings

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-115.6%0-28.3%0-33.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.3%2-15.7%2-23.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.5%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% 19.6% 5.10 +24.5%

Draw 30.1% 27.8% 3.60 +8.4%

Away win 42.3% 62.5% 1.60 -32.3%

Over 2.5 43.2% 51.3% 1.95 -15.8%

Over 3.5 24.0% 29.0% 3.45 -10.3%

BTTS 47.2% 52.4% 1.91 -9.8%

Home O1.5 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

Away O1.5 29.0% 56.5% 1.77 -29.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.6%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.6%

#4 1–0✓ 12.5%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skovde AIK0.9

Jonkopings1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.2% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SKOVDE AIK · PPG 1.20

JONKOPINGS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Skovde AIK (H) 27.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +24.5%

Draw 30.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +8.4%

Jonkopings (A) 42.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skovde AIK face Jonkopings in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Monday, June 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skovde AIK a 28% chance, the draw 30% and Jonkopings 42%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Skovde AIK and 1.1 for Jonkopings (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skovde AIK are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.50 for Jonkopings. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.5%. This match finished 1-0.

Skovde AIK vs Jonkopings Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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