Today / Norway - 1. Division / Strommen vs Sogndal

Strommen vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

Strommen

PPG 0.25 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Sogndal

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+32.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-13.1%0-24.0%0-33.5%0-4+4.4%1 1-02.1%1-15.6%1-27.3%1-36.4%1-4+7.9%2 2-01.9%2-15.1%2-26.7%2-35.9%2-4+7.2%3 3-01.2%3-13.1%3-24.1%3-33.6%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.1%4+-22.8%4+-32.5%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 41.7% 2.40 -21.8%

Draw 20.1% 26.7% 3.75 -14.8%

Away win 53.4% 41.7% 2.40 +28.2%

Over 2.5 72.7% 70.4% 1.42 +3.2%

Over 3.5 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

BTTS 64.0% 73.5% 1.36 -13.0%

Home O1.5 54.4% 55.6% 1.80 -2.1%

Away O1.5 73.8% 55.6% 1.80 +32.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob64.0%

A 53% / xG 1.8-2.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.3%

#2 2–2 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 2–3✓ 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strommen1.8

Sogndal2.6

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STROMMEN · PPG 0.25

SOGNDAL · PPG 0.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.25), Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Strommen (H) 26.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -21.8%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -14.8%

Sogndal (A) 53.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strommen face Sogndal in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strommen a 27% chance, the draw 20% and Sogndal 53%, so Sogndal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Strommen and 2.6 for Sogndal (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strommen are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.40 for Sogndal. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +51.3%. This match finished 2-3.

Strommen vs Sogndal Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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