Today / Norway - 1. Division / Kongsvinger vs Asane

Kongsvinger vs Asane Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

Kongsvinger

PPG 3.00 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Asane

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.8%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.4%1-15.3%1-22.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.7%2-18.1%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.8%3-18.1%3-23.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-015.5%4+-112.9%4+-25.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 76.9% 1.30 -20.3%

Draw 19.8% 19.2% 5.20 +1.8%

Away win 19.0% 14.7% 6.80 +17.5%

Over 2.5 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 55.6% 1.80 -22.4%

BTTS 55.3% 66.7% 1.50 -17.1%

Home O1.5 80.3% 80.0% 1.25 +0.4%

Away O1.5 20.2% 33.3% 3.00 -23.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob55.3%

H 61% / xG 3.0-0.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.8%

#2 2–0 9.7%

#3 3–1✓ 8.1%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 4–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger3.0

Asane0.8

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER · PPG 3.00

ASANE · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=61.3%

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -20.3%

Draw 19.8%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +1.8%

Asane (A) 19.0%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger face Asane in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger a 61% chance, the draw 20% and Asane 19%, so Kongsvinger are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Kongsvinger and 0.8 for Asane (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Asane. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Kongsvinger vs Asane Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 1. Division Predictions