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Egersund vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 15:00

Egersund

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Stromsgodset

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.5% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.5%0-19.1%0-26.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-08.6%1-112.1%1-28.5%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.7%2-18.1%2-25.7%2-32.7%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.5%3-13.6%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 36.4% 2.75 -4.0%

Draw 24.3% 26.0% 3.85 -3.9%

Away win 40.8% 47.6% 2.10 -14.3%

Over 2.5 57.4% 72.5% 1.38 -20.8%

Over 3.5 36.2% 51.3% 1.95 -29.4%

BTTS 60.5% 75.2% 1.33 -19.5%

Home O1.5 38.4% 54.1% 1.85 -29.0%

Away O1.5 41.1% 61.7% 1.62 -33.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.5%

A 41% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 0–0 6.5%

#4 2–1 8.1%

#5 0–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Egersund1.3

Stromsgodset1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

EGERSUND · PPG 2.00

STROMSGODSET · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Egersund (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -3.9%

Stromsgodset (A) 40.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Egersund face Stromsgodset in Norway - 1. Division on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Egersund a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Stromsgodset 41%, so Stromsgodset are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Egersund and 1.4 for Stromsgodset (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Egersund are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Stromsgodset. This match finished 0-5.

Egersund vs Stromsgodset Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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