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Karlberg vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 14:00

Karlberg

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY O1.5

FBK Karlstad

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 65.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+31.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-19.7%0-210.9%0-38.2%0-4+7.8%1 1-03.9%1-18.7%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.9%2 2-01.7%2-13.9%2-24.4%2-33.3%2-4+3.1%3 3-00.5%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% 44.4% 2.25 -41.4%

Draw 21.6% 27.4% 3.65 -12.7%

Away win 64.6% 37.7% 2.65 +71.2%

Over 2.5 62.0% 65.4% 1.53 -5.1%

Over 3.5 38.3% 42.6% 2.35 -10.0%

BTTS 55.3% 69.4% 1.44 -20.4%

Home O1.5 22.6% 54.6% 1.83 -35.2%

Away O1.5 65.7% 50.0% 2.00 +31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob55.3%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.9%

#2 1–1✓ 8.7%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlberg0.9

FBK Karlstad2.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLBERG · PPG 1.00

FBK KARLSTAD · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Karlberg (H) 13.8%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -41.4%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.7%

FBK Karlstad (A) 64.6%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +71.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlberg face FBK Karlstad in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlberg a 14% chance, the draw 22% and FBK Karlstad 65%, so FBK Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Karlberg and 2.2 for FBK Karlstad (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlberg are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.25 for FBK Karlstad. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +104.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Karlberg vs FBK Karlstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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