Today / Sweden - Ettan - Norra / Umea vs Stocksund

Umea vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 10 ·Sunday, May 31, 2026, 12:30

Umea

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Stocksund

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.1% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.5%0-22.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.2%1-17.9%1-25.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.9%2-18.9%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-16.7%3-25.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-16.5%4+-24.9%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 67.6% 1.48 -21.3%

Draw 21.8% 21.7% 4.60 +0.2%

Away win 25.1% 20.8% 4.80 +12.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 74.1% 1.35 -11.2%

Over 3.5 43.1% 51.8% 1.93 -16.8%

BTTS 63.4% 69.0% 1.45 -8.1%

Home O1.5 66.1% 74.1% 1.35 -10.8%

Away O1.5 44.3% 38.5% 2.60 +15.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.9%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 6.7%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea2.3

Stocksund1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA · PPG 1.00

STOCKSUND · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Umea (H) 53.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.3%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +0.2%

Stocksund (A) 25.1%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea face Stocksund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Stocksund 25%, so Umea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Umea and 1.5 for Stocksund (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Stocksund. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Umea vs Stocksund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Ettan - Norra Predictions