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Caxias vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 22:30

Caxias

PPG 3.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Ituano

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-111.6%0-23.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.2%1-112.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.3%2-16.6%2-22.1%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.7%3-12.4%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-10.8%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 54.1% 1.85 -23.8%

Draw 30.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.4%

Away win 28.1% 22.7% 4.40 +14.2%

Over 2.5 34.0% 37.7% 2.65 -9.9%

Over 3.5 18.6% 20.0% 5.00 -4.2%

BTTS 45.5% 44.4% 2.25 +2.4%

Home O1.5 28.9% 42.6% 2.35 -19.3%

Away O1.5 13.7% 22.2% 4.50 -23.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob45.5%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.0%

#2 1–0 19.2%

#3 1–1 12.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 0–1 11.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.1

Ituano0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 3.00

ITUANO · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=41.2%

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -23.8%

Draw 30.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -9.4%

Ituano (A) 28.1%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Ituano in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 41% chance, the draw 31% and Ituano 28%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Caxias and 0.6 for Ituano (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Ituano. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +14.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Caxias vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions