Today / Brazil - Serie C / Botafogo PB vs Maringa

Botafogo PB vs Maringa Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 21:00

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Maringa

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.2%0-26.1%0-34.0%0-4+3.1%1 1-04.7%1-19.2%1-29.1%1-36.0%1-4+4.7%2 2-03.5%2-16.8%2-26.8%2-34.5%2-4+3.5%3 3-01.7%3-13.4%3-23.3%3-32.2%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.8%4+-21.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 40.8% 2.45 -21.6%

Draw 22.8% 30.8% 3.25 -15.5%

Away win 45.2% 38.2% 2.62 +18.4%

Over 2.5 64.1% 54.1% 1.85 +18.6%

Over 3.5 40.5% 31.3% 3.20 +29.6%

BTTS 63.4% 60.6% 1.65 +4.6%

Home O1.5 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Away O1.5 58.8% 42.6% 2.35 +38.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.4%

A 45% / xG 1.5-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.1%

#3 2–1✓ 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo PB1.5

Maringa2.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.00

MARINGA · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo PB (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.5%

Maringa (A) 45.2%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo PB face Maringa in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo PB a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Maringa 45%, so Maringa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Botafogo PB and 2.0 for Maringa (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo PB are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Maringa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +59.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Botafogo PB vs Maringa Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions