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Itabaiana vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 20:00

Itabaiana

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Volta Redonda

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.5%0-114.8%0-25.6%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.0%1-113.0%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.4%2-15.7%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.2%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 45.5% 2.20 -20.1%

Draw 35.5% 32.3% 3.10 +10.1%

Away win 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Over 2.5 32.7% 45.5% 2.20 -28.1%

Over 3.5 17.6% 23.8% 4.20 -15.7%

BTTS 44.4% 54.1% 1.85 -17.9%

Home O1.5 21.8% 41.7% 2.40 -28.6%

Away O1.5 17.8% 33.3% 3.00 -28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob44.4%

D 36% / xG 0.9-0.8 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 19.5%

#2 1–0 17.0%

#3 1–1 13.0%

#4 0–1✓ 14.8%

#5 2–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itabaiana0.9

Volta Redonda0.8

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 32.7% · O3.5 PROB 17.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITABAIANA · PPG 0.33

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Itabaiana (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.1%

Draw 35.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +10.1%

Volta Redonda (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itabaiana face Volta Redonda in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itabaiana a 36% chance, the draw 36% and Volta Redonda 28%, so Itabaiana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Itabaiana and 0.8 for Volta Redonda (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itabaiana are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 0.00 for Volta Redonda. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Itabaiana vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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