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Tvaaker vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Tvaaker

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Kristianstad

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.8%0-110.9%0-23.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.2%1-112.6%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-17.3%2-22.5%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.0%3-12.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Draw 29.2% 28.6% 3.50 +1.3%

Away win 22.7% 30.8% 3.25 -15.7%

Over 2.5 34.0% 58.8% 1.70 -42.2%

Over 3.5 18.6% 36.4% 2.75 -29.3%

BTTS 46.0% 63.7% 1.57 -27.8%

Home O1.5 32.0% 54.6% 1.83 -41.4%

Away O1.5 15.3% 39.2% 2.55 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.0%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.8%

#2 1–0 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 0–1 10.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tvaaker1.2

Kristianstad0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TVAAKER · PPG 1.75

KRISTIANSTAD · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=48.1%

Win probability 1X2

Tvaaker (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.2%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +1.3%

Kristianstad (A) 22.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tvaaker face Kristianstad in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tvaaker a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Kristianstad 23%, so Tvaaker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tvaaker and 0.7 for Kristianstad (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tvaaker are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.80 for Kristianstad. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Tvaaker vs Kristianstad Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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