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Trollhattan vs Atvidaberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Trollhattan

PPG 0.40 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Atvidaberg

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 57.2% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-110.3%0-28.4%0-34.6%0-4+2.7%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.5%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.1%2-16.6%2-25.4%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.5%3-12.5%3-22.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 44.4% 2.25 -21.4%

Draw 25.6% 29.0% 3.45 -7.0%

Away win 45.8% 36.4% 2.75 +25.9%

Over 2.5 57.2% 56.5% 1.77 +1.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 33.9% 2.95 +6.8%

BTTS 55.3% 62.5% 1.60 -11.5%

Home O1.5 31.2% 48.8% 2.05 -36.0%

Away O1.5 48.4% 42.6% 2.35 +13.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob55.3%

A 46% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–1 10.3%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trollhattan1.1

Atvidaberg1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.2% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TROLLHATTAN · PPG 0.40

ATVIDABERG · PPG 1.25

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs Home POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Trollhattan (H) 28.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -21.4%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -7.0%

Atvidaberg (A) 45.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trollhattan face Atvidaberg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trollhattan a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Atvidaberg 46%, so Atvidaberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Trollhattan and 1.6 for Atvidaberg (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trollhattan are averaging 0.40 points per game versus 1.25 for Atvidaberg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +43.5%. This match finished 3-3.

Trollhattan vs Atvidaberg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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