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Hassleholms IF vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Hassleholms IF

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Utsikten

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.0% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-11.8%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.2%1-15.5%1-22.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.2%2-18.2%2-23.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-18.2%3-23.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-014.4%4+-112.8%4+-25.7%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% 75.2% 1.33 -16.7%

Draw 19.9% 20.8% 4.80 -2.7%

Away win 17.5% 14.3% 7.00 +13.5%

Over 2.5 65.8% 67.6% 1.48 -2.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

BTTS 55.6% 58.8% 1.70 -5.5%

Home O1.5 80.0% 74.1% 1.35 +8.0%

Away O1.5 22.4% 26.7% 3.75 -9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.6%

H 63% / xG 3.0-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.2%

#2 3–0✓ 9.2%

#3 2–1 8.2%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 4–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hassleholms IF3.0

Utsikten0.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HASSLEHOLMS IF · PPG 1.00

UTSIKTEN · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Hassleholms IF (H) 62.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -16.7%

Draw 19.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -2.7%

Utsikten (A) 17.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +13.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hassleholms IF face Utsikten in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hassleholms IF a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Utsikten 18%, so Hassleholms IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Hassleholms IF and 0.9 for Utsikten (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hassleholms IF are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Utsikten. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Hassleholms IF vs Utsikten Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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