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Karlstad vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Karlstad

PPG 2.40 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sollentuna

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.6%0-18.1%0-21.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-022.5%1-110.4%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.3%2-16.6%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.1%3-12.8%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 66.7% 1.50 -19.9%

Draw 27.1% 26.7% 3.75 +1.0%

Away win 19.5% 20.0% 5.00 -1.5%

Over 2.5 34.0% 58.8% 1.70 -42.2%

Over 3.5 19.0% 38.2% 2.62 -30.1%

BTTS 44.4% 58.8% 1.70 -24.5%

Home O1.5 36.4% 61.7% 1.62 -41.0%

Away O1.5 7.9% 26.7% 3.75 -42.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob44.4%

H 53% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.5%

#2 0–0✓ 17.6%

#3 2–0 14.3%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlstad1.3

Sollentuna0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLSTAD · PPG 2.40

SOLLENTUNA · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.40) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Karlstad (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -19.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.0%

Sollentuna (A) 19.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlstad face Sollentuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlstad a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Sollentuna 20%, so Karlstad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karlstad and 0.5 for Sollentuna (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlstad are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.60 for Sollentuna. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +1.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Karlstad vs Sollentuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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