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Hammarby Talang vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Hammarby Talang

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 82.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.6%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-14.9%1-22.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.5%2-17.8%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-013.8%4+-114.3%4+-27.4%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 75.2% 1.33 -13.7%

Draw 20.6% 20.8% 4.80 -0.7%

Away win 14.5% 14.3% 7.00 +0.9%

Over 2.5 65.8% 69.0% 1.45 -4.6%

Over 3.5 43.7% 46.5% 2.15 -6.0%

BTTS 55.3% 59.9% 1.67 -7.6%

Home O1.5 82.4% 75.2% 1.33 +9.6%

Away O1.5 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.3%

H 65% / xG 3.2-1.0 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 3–0 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 4–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hammarby Talang3.2

AFC Eskilstuna1.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMMARBY TALANG · PPG 1.75

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hammarby Talang (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -13.7%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -0.7%

AFC Eskilstuna (A) 14.5%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hammarby Talang face AFC Eskilstuna in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hammarby Talang a 65% chance, the draw 21% and AFC Eskilstuna 14%, so Hammarby Talang are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Hammarby Talang and 1.0 for AFC Eskilstuna (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hammarby Talang are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for AFC Eskilstuna. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Hammarby Talang vs AFC Eskilstuna Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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