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Moss vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Moss

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stabaek

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-17.0%0-27.4%0-35.2%0-4+4.5%1 1-04.3%1-19.1%1-29.6%1-36.8%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.8%2-15.8%2-26.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.8%3 3-01.2%3-12.5%3-22.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.9% 35.7% 2.80 -14.8%

Draw 21.7% 26.7% 3.75 -11.2%

Away win 51.3% 47.6% 2.10 +7.7%

Over 2.5 64.1% 69.0% 1.45 -7.1%

Over 3.5 40.5% 46.5% 2.15 -12.9%

BTTS 61.0% 71.4% 1.40 -14.6%

Home O1.5 36.9% 50.0% 2.00 -26.2%

Away O1.5 62.4% 58.8% 1.70 +6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 25%

ROI 5.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob61.0%

A 51% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.4%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–2✓ 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Moss1.3

Stabaek2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOSS · PPG 1.75

STABAEK · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Moss (H) 26.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.8%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.2%

Stabaek (A) 51.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Moss face Stabaek in Norway - 1. Division on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Moss a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Stabaek 51%, so Stabaek are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Moss and 2.1 for Stabaek (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Moss are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.60 for Stabaek. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%. This match finished 2-2.

Moss vs Stabaek Prediction— Norway - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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