Today / Latvia - Virsliga / Auda vs Ogre United

Auda vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 14:00

Auda

PPG 1.71 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Ogre United

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 83.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.4%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.4%1-14.6%1-22.0%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.7%2-17.5%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.4%3-18.1%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.1%4+-114.7%4+-26.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 87.7% 1.14 -26.0%

Draw 20.6% 15.4% 6.50 +20.3%

Away win 14.5% 7.1% 14.00 +61.8%

Over 2.5 65.8% 75.2% 1.33 -12.5%

Over 3.5 44.3% 54.1% 1.85 -18.0%

BTTS 55.3% 51.3% 1.95 +7.8%

Home O1.5 83.3% 85.5% 1.17 -2.5%

Away O1.5 21.2% 18.2% 5.50 +10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.3%

H 65% / xG 3.2-0.9 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.4%

#2 2–0✓ 8.7%

#3 3–1 8.1%

#4 4–0 7.6%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Auda3.2

Ogre United0.9

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

AUDA · PPG 1.71

OGRE UNITED · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Auda (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -26.0%

Draw 20.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +20.3%

Ogre United (A) 14.5%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +61.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Auda face Ogre United in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Auda a 65% chance, the draw 21% and Ogre United 14%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Auda and 0.9 for Ogre United (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Auda are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.00 for Ogre United. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +61.8%. This match finished 2-0.

Auda vs Ogre United Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Latvia - Virsliga Predictions