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Baerum vs Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Baerum

PPG 1.50 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Grei

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 92.2% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.4%0-20.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-00.7%1-11.6%1-21.7%1-31.2%1-4+1.1%2 2-01.6%2-13.3%2-23.6%2-32.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.2%3-14.7%3-25.0%3-33.6%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-115.1%4+-216.2%4+-311.6%4+-4+10.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 72.5% 1.38 -18.0%

Draw 19.0% 20.0% 5.00 -3.0%

Away win 21.6% 19.0% 5.25 +8.0%

Over 2.5 80.0% 85.5% 1.17 -6.4%

Over 3.5 69.0% 70.9% 1.41 -2.7%

BTTS 65.9% 78.1% 1.28 -15.7%

Home O1.5 92.2% 87.0% 1.15 +6.0%

Away O1.5 63.2% 43.7% 2.29 +44.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)4.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob65.9%

H 59% / xG 4.2-2.1 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 5.2%

#2 3–2 5.0%

#3 4–1 4.9%

#4 3–1 4.7%

#5 5–2 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baerum4.2

Grei2.1

COMBINED 6.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAERUM · PPG 1.50

GREI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Baerum (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -18.0%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -3.0%

Grei (A) 21.6%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV +8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Baerum face Grei in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baerum a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Grei 22%, so Baerum are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.2 for Baerum and 2.1 for Grei (6.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baerum are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.75 for Grei. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +44.7%. This match finished 5-0.

Baerum vs Grei Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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