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Ullern vs Asker Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 11:00

Ullern

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

UPCOMING

Asker

PPG 2.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5 83% chance

Model probability 80.1% vs bookmaker-implied 84.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-13.2%0-25.3%0-35.8%0-4+11.0%1 1-01.3%1-14.3%1-27.1%1-37.8%1-4+14.7%2 2-00.9%2-12.9%2-24.7%2-35.2%2-4+9.8%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.1%3-32.3%3-4+4.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.6%4+-20.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 14.3% 7.00 -0.4%

Draw 15.9% 20.8% 4.80 -14.2%

Away win 70.0% 76.9% 1.30 -9.0%

Over 2.5 77.4% 82.0% 1.22 -5.6%

Over 3.5 56.6% 64.5% 1.55 -12.3%

BTTS 64.5% 69.4% 1.44 -7.1%

Home O1.5 39.0% 38.3% 2.61 +1.8%

Away O1.5 80.1% 84.0% 1.19 -4.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 61%

O2.5 86%

BTTS 82%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 77%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.3 BTTS prob64.5%

A 70% / xG 1.3-3.3 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.8%

#2 1–2 7.1%

#3 1–4 6.4%

#4 0–3 5.8%

#5 1–1 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ullern1.3

Asker3.3

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.4% · O3.5 PROB 56.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ULLERN · PPG 0.78

ASKER · PPG 2.75

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

83%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.96 for Away, form 0.78 vs 2.75

Win probability 1X2

Ullern (H) 14.2%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -0.4%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -14.2%

Asker (A) 70.0%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -9.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ullern face Asker in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ullern a 14% chance, the draw 16% and Asker 70%, so Asker are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ullern and 3.3 for Asker (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ullern are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 2.75 for Asker. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.9%.

Ullern vs Asker Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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