Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern

Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Lokomotiv Oslo

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ullern

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.2%0-24.3%0-33.0%0-4+2.5%1 1-03.7%1-17.7%1-27.9%1-35.4%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.4%2-17.0%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.1%3-14.3%3-24.4%3-33.1%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.0%4+-23.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 40.8% 2.45 -9.8%

Draw 21.4% 25.0% 4.00 -8.6%

Away win 41.8% 45.5% 2.20 -8.0%

Over 2.5 68.2% 80.0% 1.25 -14.8%

Over 3.5 48.2% 65.8% 1.52 -26.7%

BTTS 69.2% 83.3% 1.20 -17.0%

Home O1.5 54.8% 64.9% 1.54 -15.6%

Away O1.5 57.2% 68.5% 1.46 -16.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.2%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lokomotiv Oslo1.8

Ullern2.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.2% · O3.5 PROB 48.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LOKOMOTIV OSLO · PPG 1.29

ULLERN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lokomotiv Oslo (H) 36.8%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -9.8%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.6%

Ullern (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lokomotiv Oslo face Ullern in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lokomotiv Oslo a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Ullern 42%, so Ullern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lokomotiv Oslo and 2.1 for Ullern (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lokomotiv Oslo are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.00 for Ullern. This match finished 2-3.

Lokomotiv Oslo vs Ullern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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