Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Heming vs Vålerenga II

Heming vs Vålerenga II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:00

Heming

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Vålerenga II

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 86.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.9%1-14.4%1-23.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.6%2-17.0%2-25.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.9%3-17.4%3-25.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-113.0%4+-29.9%4+-35.0%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.6% 71.4% 1.40 -16.6%

Draw 16.4% 20.0% 5.00 -10.8%

Away win 24.0% 21.1% 4.75 +8.4%

Over 2.5 76.6% 85.5% 1.17 -10.4%

Over 3.5 56.2% 73.0% 1.37 -23.0%

BTTS 69.4% 82.0% 1.22 -15.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 86.2% 1.16 -10.3%

Away O1.5 46.6% 52.1% 1.92 -10.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob69.4%

H 60% / xG 3.2-1.5 / O2.5 77% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 1–2 3.4%

#4 2–2 5.3%

#5 1–1 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heming3.2

Vålerenga II1.5

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.2%

Form & verdict PPG

HEMING · PPG 2.00

VÅLERENGA II · PPG 0.88

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.00 vs 0.88 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Heming (H) 59.6%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -16.6%

Draw 16.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -10.8%

Vålerenga II (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heming face Vålerenga II in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heming a 60% chance, the draw 16% and Vålerenga II 24%, so Heming are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for Heming and 1.5 for Vålerenga II (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heming are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.88 for Vålerenga II. This match finished 5-2.

Heming vs Vålerenga II Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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