Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Gamle Oslo vs Heming

Gamle Oslo vs Heming Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Matchday 18 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 17:00

Gamle Oslo

PPG 2.11 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Heming

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 83.0% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.3%0-20.4%0-30.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-00.5%1-11.4%1-21.7%1-31.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-01.1%2-12.8%2-23.5%2-32.9%2-4+3.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.9%3-24.8%3-34.1%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-112.1%4+-215.1%4+-312.6%4+-4+14.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.2% 63.7% 1.57 -0.8%

Draw 15.2% 22.2% 4.50 -19.0%

Away win 21.5% 26.3% 3.80 -11.0%

Over 2.5 83.0% 82.0% 1.22 +1.3%

Over 3.5 70.3% 65.4% 1.53 +7.6%

BTTS 81.2% 80.6% 1.24 +0.7%

Home O1.5 78.3% 80.0% 1.25 -2.1%

Away O1.5 69.2% 53.8% 1.86 +28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 85%

BTTS 81%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -35.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob81.2%

H 63% / xG 4.1-2.5 / O2.5 83% / BTTS 81%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 5.0%

#2 3–2 4.8%

#3 3–3 4.1%

#4 4–3 4.2%

#5 5–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gamle Oslo4.1

Heming2.5

COMBINED 6.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 83.0% · O3.5 PROB 70.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GAMLE OSLO · PPG 2.11

HEMING · PPG 1.75

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.62 for Home, form 2.11 vs 1.75 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Gamle Oslo (H) 63.2%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -0.8%

Draw 15.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -19.0%

Heming (A) 21.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -11.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gamle Oslo face Heming in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gamle Oslo a 63% chance, the draw 15% and Heming 22%, so Gamle Oslo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Gamle Oslo and 2.5 for Heming (6.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 83% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 81% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gamle Oslo are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.75 for Heming. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +64.9%.

Gamle Oslo vs Heming Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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