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Liepaja vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 12:00

Liepaja

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tukums

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.1%0-24.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.8%1-110.4%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.8%2-26.7%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.1%4+-22.3%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.8% 57.8% 1.73 -24.2%

Draw 22.5% 26.3% 3.80 -8.7%

Away win 33.7% 25.6% 3.90 +31.4%

Over 2.5 64.1% 65.4% 1.53 -1.9%

Over 3.5 40.5% 42.6% 2.35 -4.8%

BTTS 62.2% 66.7% 1.50 -6.7%

Home O1.5 50.4% 63.7% 1.57 -20.9%

Away O1.5 45.0% 39.2% 2.55 +14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.2%

H 44% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Liepaja1.7

Tukums1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.57

TUKUMS · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.57) vs P(Home)=43.8%

Win probability 1X2

Liepaja (H) 43.8%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -24.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.7%

Tukums (A) 33.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Liepaja face Tukums in Latvia - Virsliga on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Liepaja a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Tukums 34%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Liepaja and 1.5 for Tukums (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Liepaja are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.57 for Tukums. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +33.6%. This match finished 3-0.

Liepaja vs Tukums Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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