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Onsala vs Astrio Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Onsala

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Astrio

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.8%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.6%1-24.1%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.2%2-19.8%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.8%3-17.4%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.2%4+-23.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.8% 67.6% 1.48 -11.5%

Draw 20.2% 22.2% 4.50 -5.5%

Away win 20.1% 20.0% 5.00 +0.3%

Over 2.5 64.1% 72.5% 1.38 -11.5%

Over 3.5 40.5% 51.3% 1.95 -21.0%

BTTS 58.0% 69.0% 1.45 -15.9%

Home O1.5 66.5% 73.5% 1.36 -9.6%

Away O1.5 24.8% 37.7% 2.65 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob58.0%

H 60% / xG 2.3-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.2%

#2 1–1 8.6%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 3–0 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Onsala2.3

Astrio1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ONSALA · PPG 1.25

ASTRIO · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.25) vs P(Home)=59.8%

Win probability 1X2

Onsala (H) 59.8%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -11.5%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -5.5%

Astrio (A) 20.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +0.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Onsala face Astrio in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Onsala a 60% chance, the draw 20% and Astrio 20%, so Onsala are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Onsala and 1.0 for Astrio (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Onsala are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.25 for Astrio. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Onsala vs Astrio Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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