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Eskilsminne vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 10 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Eskilsminne

PPG 1.60 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Trelleborg

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+13.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.9%0-29.0%0-36.8%0-4+6.7%1 1-03.7%1-18.5%1-29.7%1-37.4%1-4+7.2%2 2-02.0%2-14.6%2-25.3%2-34.0%2-4+3.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.7%3-21.9%3-31.5%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% 27.0% 3.70 -13.2%

Draw 21.7% 27.8% 3.60 -13.1%

Away win 57.2% 55.6% 1.80 +3.0%

Over 2.5 64.1% 60.6% 1.65 +5.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 38.5% 2.60 +5.3%

BTTS 61.0% 64.5% 1.55 -5.5%

Home O1.5 29.5% 37.7% 2.65 -13.1%

Away O1.5 66.5% 58.8% 1.70 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob61.0%

A 57% / xG 1.1-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 1–3 7.4%

#5 0–3 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eskilsminne1.1

Trelleborg2.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ESKILSMINNE · PPG 1.60

TRELLEBORG · PPG 2.50

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Eskilsminne (H) 21.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -13.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -13.1%

Trelleborg (A) 57.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eskilsminne face Trelleborg in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eskilsminne a 21% chance, the draw 22% and Trelleborg 57%, so Trelleborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Eskilsminne and 2.3 for Trelleborg (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eskilsminne are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 2.50 for Trelleborg. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Eskilsminne vs Trelleborg Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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