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Ullern vs Konnerud Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Ullern

PPG 0.25 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Konnerud

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.2%0-22.6%0-32.0%0-4+2.0%1 1-02.2%1-15.2%1-26.0%1-34.7%1-4+4.7%2 2-02.6%2-16.0%2-27.0%2-35.4%2-4+5.4%3 3-02.0%3-14.6%3-25.4%3-34.2%3-4+4.2%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-14.6%4+-25.4%4+-34.2%4+-4+4.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.1% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 39.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 54.6% — — —

BTTS 65.9% — — —

Home O1.5 67.2% — — —

Away O1.5 67.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob65.9%

A 40% / xG 2.3-2.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 1–2 6.0%

#3 2–1✓ 6.0%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 2–3 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ullern2.3

Konnerud2.3

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 54.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ULLERN · PPG 0.25

KONNERUD · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Ullern (H) 40.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Konnerud (A) 39.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ullern face Konnerud in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ullern a 40% chance, the draw 20% and Konnerud 40%, so Ullern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Ullern and 2.3 for Konnerud (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ullern are averaging 0.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Konnerud. This match finished 2-1.

Ullern vs Konnerud Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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