Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Valerenga B vs Heming

Valerenga B vs Heming Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 12:00

Valerenga B

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 6

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Heming

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 79.3% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+14.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.8%0-22.7%0-32.7%0-4+4.1%1 1-01.3%1-13.9%1-25.8%1-35.7%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.4%2-14.2%2-26.1%2-36.0%2-4+9.2%3 3-01.0%3-13.0%3-24.4%3-34.3%3-4+6.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.6%4+-23.8%4+-33.7%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.0% 32.3% 3.10 -7.9%

Draw 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

Away win 50.9% 55.6% 1.80 -8.4%

Over 2.5 79.0% 76.9% 1.30 +2.7%

Over 3.5 74.6% 55.9% 1.79 +33.5%

BTTS 66.7% 76.3% 1.31 -12.6%

Home O1.5 62.7% 51.8% 1.93 +21.0%

Away O1.5 79.3% 69.4% 1.44 +14.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-6

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob66.7%

A 51% / xG 2.1-3.0 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.1%

#2 2–3 6.0%

#3 1–2 5.8%

#4 1–3 5.7%

#5 1–1 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valerenga B2.1

Heming3.0

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 74.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VALERENGA B · PPG 2.00

HEMING · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

Valerenga B (H) 28.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.9%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.2%

Heming (A) 50.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valerenga B face Heming in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valerenga B a 28% chance, the draw 21% and Heming 51%, so Heming are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Valerenga B and 3.0 for Heming (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valerenga B are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Heming. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +33.5%. This match finished 1-6.

Valerenga B vs Heming Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 Predictions