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Heming vs Union Carl Bern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

Heming

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Union Carl Bern

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.0%0-24.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.9%1-18.9%1-28.1%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.7%3-24.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.1%4+-22.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.2% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 41.1% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.0% — — —

Away O1.5 54.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 41% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heming1.8

Union Carl Bern1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HEMING · PPG 1.75

UNION CARL BERN · PPG 2.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Heming (H) 37.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Union Carl Bern (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Heming face Union Carl Bern in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heming a 37% chance, the draw 22% and Union Carl Bern 41%, so Union Carl Bern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Heming and 1.8 for Union Carl Bern (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heming are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.25 for Union Carl Bern. This match finished 2-0.

Heming vs Union Carl Bern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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