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Lech Poznan UAM vs Rekord B. W Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 09:30

Lech Poznan UAM

PPG 1.30 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Rekord B. W

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-17.8%0-26.8%0-33.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.1%1-110.7%1-29.3%1-35.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.2%2-17.3%2-26.3%2-33.7%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.9%3-31.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 46.6% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 61.0% — — —

Home O1.5 39.6% — — —

Away O1.5 51.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 65%

O2.5 87%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.0%

A 47% / xG 1.4-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1✓ 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan UAM1.4

Rekord B. W1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN UAM · PPG 1.30

REKORD B. W · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.30) vs Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan UAM (H) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Rekord B. W (A) 46.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan UAM face Rekord B. W in Poland - Ekstraliga Women on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan UAM a 30% chance, the draw 24% and Rekord B. W 47%, so Rekord B. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Lech Poznan UAM and 1.7 for Rekord B. W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan UAM are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.70 for Rekord B. W. This match finished 2-1.

Lech Poznan UAM vs Rekord B. W Prediction— Poland - Ekstraliga Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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