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Hestrafor vs Boljan Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 10 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 17:30

Hestrafor

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Boljan

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.4%0-24.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.2%1-19.3%1-28.3%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.5%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.8%3 3-02.5%3-14.5%3-24.0%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.9%4+-22.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.2% 51.3% 1.95 -25.5%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 39.6% 32.3% 3.10 +22.8%

Over 2.5 65.3% 71.4% 1.40 -8.6%

Over 3.5 43.1% 50.0% 2.00 -13.8%

BTTS 63.4% 73.5% 1.36 -13.8%

Home O1.5 51.1% 63.7% 1.57 -19.8%

Away O1.5 53.1% 48.8% 2.05 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 40% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hestrafor1.7

Boljan1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HESTRAFOR · PPG 1.00

BOLJAN · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

70%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Hestrafor (H) 38.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -25.5%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Boljan (A) 39.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hestrafor face Boljan in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hestrafor a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Boljan 40%, so Boljan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Hestrafor and 1.8 for Boljan (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hestrafor are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Boljan. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +22.8%. This match finished 3-1.

Hestrafor vs Boljan Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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