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Varhaug vs Vag Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 13:00

Varhaug

PPG 1.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Vag

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

No PPG data

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.3%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.2%1-18.0%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-19.6%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.9%3-17.7%3-23.7%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.4%4+-18.2%4+-24.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.9% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 18.5% — — —

Over 2.5 62.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.6% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 69.2% — — —

Away O1.5 25.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 60% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.0%

#4 3–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varhaug2.4

Vag1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VARHAUG · PPG 1.25

VAG · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Varhaug (H) 59.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vag (A) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Varhaug face Vag in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varhaug a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Vag 19%, so Varhaug are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Varhaug and 1.0 for Vag (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varhaug are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.00 for Vag. This match finished 0-1.

Varhaug vs Vag Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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