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Madla vs Hinna Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 16:00

Madla

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Hinna

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 89.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+21.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-10.8%0-20.5%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.6%1-13.1%1-21.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.3%2 2-04.9%2-15.8%2-23.4%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.3%3-17.4%3-24.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-016.2%4+-119.2%4+-211.3%4+-34.5%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.0% 57.1% 1.75 +24.3%

Draw 20.4% 23.1% 4.33 -7.0%

Away win 8.6% 31.3% 3.20 -43.5%

Over 2.5 79.0% 80.0% 1.25 -1.3%

Over 3.5 73.4% 58.8% 1.70 +24.8%

BTTS 60.3% 77.5% 1.29 -22.2%

Home O1.5 89.3% 73.5% 1.36 +21.4%

Away O1.5 33.0% 50.3% 1.99 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 78%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.3%

H 71% / xG 3.8-1.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.4%

#2 4–1 7.0%

#3 3–0✓ 6.3%

#4 4–0 6.0%

#5 2–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Madla3.8

Hinna1.2

COMBINED 5.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 73.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MADLA · PPG 2.33

HINNA · PPG 0.75

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.75) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Madla (H) 71.0%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +24.3%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -7.0%

Hinna (A) 8.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -43.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Madla face Hinna in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Madla a 71% chance, the draw 20% and Hinna 9%, so Madla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Madla and 1.2 for Hinna (5.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Madla are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.75 for Hinna. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +24.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Madla vs Hinna Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 4

Match Preview & Prediction

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