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Sturm Graz W vs FC Salzburg W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Championship Group - 24 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 16:30

Sturm Graz W

PPG 1.18 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

FC Salzburg W

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.18) vs Away GOOD (1.55)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.7%0-22.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-04.1%1-16.6%1-25.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.2%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.2%3 3-04.2%3-16.8%3-25.5%3-33.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-17.6%4+-26.2%4+-33.4%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 27.8% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 45.5% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 70.8% — — —

Away O1.5 48.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–1 6.8%

#4 2–2✓ 6.7%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz W2.5

FC Salzburg W1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ W · PPG 1.18

FC SALZBURG W · PPG 1.55

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.18) vs Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz W (H) 51.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

FC Salzburg W (A) 27.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz W face FC Salzburg W in Austria - Frauenliga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz W a 51% chance, the draw 21% and FC Salzburg W 28%, so Sturm Graz W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sturm Graz W and 1.6 for FC Salzburg W (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz W are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.55 for FC Salzburg W. This match finished 2-2.

Sturm Graz W vs FC Salzburg W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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