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Sturm Graz W vs St. Polten W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Championship Group - 23 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:30

Sturm Graz W

PPG 1.30 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

St. Polten W

PPG 2.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.70) vs Home AVERAGE (1.30)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-17.4%0-29.7%0-38.5%0-4+10.4%1 1-02.7%1-17.0%1-29.2%1-38.0%1-4+9.9%2 2-01.3%2-13.3%2-24.3%2-33.8%2-4+4.7%3 3-00.4%3-11.0%3-21.4%3-31.2%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.3%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.8% — — —

Draw 21.4% — — —

Away win 64.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 47.9% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 65% / xG 0.9-2.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–3 8.5%

#4 1–1 7.0%

#5 1–3 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturm Graz W0.9

St. Polten W2.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.9%

Form & verdict PPG

STURM GRAZ W · PPG 1.30

ST. POLTEN W · PPG 2.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.70) vs Home AVERAGE (1.30)

Win probability 1X2

Sturm Graz W (H) 13.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

St. Polten W (A) 64.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturm Graz W face St. Polten W in Austria - Frauenliga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturm Graz W a 14% chance, the draw 21% and St. Polten W 65%, so St. Polten W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Sturm Graz W and 2.6 for St. Polten W (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturm Graz W are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 2.70 for St. Polten W. This match finished 2-3.

Sturm Graz W vs St. Polten W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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