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Riga FC vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, May 29, 2026, 15:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.43 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Grobina

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 82.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-11.5%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-06.8%1-14.7%1-21.6%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-010.6%2-17.4%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.1%3-17.8%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-019.1%4+-113.3%4+-24.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 69.0% 90.9% 1.10 -24.1%

Draw 21.6% 13.9% 7.20 +33.3%

Away win 9.5% 5.6% 18.00 +42.6%

Over 2.5 65.8% 76.9% 1.30 -14.5%

Over 3.5 43.1% 55.6% 1.80 -22.4%

BTTS 52.0% 46.5% 2.15 +11.8%

Home O1.5 82.0% 87.7% 1.14 -6.5%

Away O1.5 15.5% 16.7% 6.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.0%

H 69% / xG 3.1-0.7 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 11.1%

#2 2–0✓ 10.6%

#3 4–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 2–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC3.1

Grobina0.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.43

GROBINA · PPG 1.43

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.43), Away AVERAGE (1.43) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 69.0%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -24.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +33.3%

Grobina (A) 9.5%

ODDS 18.00 · IMPLIED 5.6% EV +42.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Grobina in Latvia - Virsliga on Friday, May 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 69% chance, the draw 22% and Grobina 10%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Riga FC and 0.7 for Grobina (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.43 points per game versus 1.43 for Grobina. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +42.6%. This match finished 2-0.

Riga FC vs Grobina Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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