Today / Jazz Pori vs SalPa

Jazz Pori vs SalPa Prediction

Thursday, May 28, 2026

Jazz Pori

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SalPa

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-15.3%0-25.7%0-34.1%0-4+3.7%1 1-03.8%1-18.2%1-28.9%1-36.4%1-4+5.6%2 2-03.0%2-16.4%2-26.9%2-34.9%2-4+4.4%3 3-01.5%3-13.3%3-23.5%3-32.5%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.8%4+-21.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.8% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 46.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 51.9% — — —

BTTS 62.7% — — —

Home O1.5 45.7% — — —

Away O1.5 63.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob62.7%

A 46% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 1–2✓ 8.9%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 1–3 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jazz Pori1.5

SalPa2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JAZZ PORI · PPG 1.00

SALPA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Jazz Pori (H) 28.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SalPa (A) 46.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jazz Pori face SalPa on Thursday, May 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jazz Pori a 29% chance, the draw 25% and SalPa 46%, so SalPa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jazz Pori and 2.2 for SalPa (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jazz Pori are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for SalPa. This match finished 1-2.

Jazz Pori vs SalPa Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions