Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 / Herd vs Aalesund B

Herd vs Aalesund B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 16:00

Herd

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Aalesund B

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.0%0-10.1%0-20.0%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.3%1-10.4%1-20.3%1-30.1%1-4+0.1%2 2-00.9%2-11.2%2-20.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-021.6%4+-130.2%4+-221.1%4+-39.9%4+-4+4.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% — — —

Draw 15.7% — — —

Away win 7.1% — — —

Over 2.5 86.2% — — —

Over 3.5 94.9% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 98.7% — — —

Away O1.5 40.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)6.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.0%

H 77% / xG 6.3-1.4 / O2.5 86% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 5.2%

#2 4–1 4.1%

#3 5–0 3.7%

#4 5–2 3.7%

#5 4–0 3.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Herd6.3

Aalesund B1.4

COMBINED 7.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 86.2% · O3.5 PROB 94.9%

Form & verdict PPG

HERD · PPG 2.33

AALESUND B · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.33), Away POOR (0.25) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Herd (H) 77.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Aalesund B (A) 7.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Herd face Aalesund B in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Herd a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Aalesund B 7%, so Herd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 6.3 for Herd and 1.4 for Aalesund B (7.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 86% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Herd are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 0.25 for Aalesund B. This match finished 0-2.

Herd vs Aalesund B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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