Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 / Strindheim vs Nardo

Strindheim vs Nardo Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 12:00

Strindheim

PPG 2.00 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Nardo

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.8% vs bookmaker-implied 71.9% — a clear edge.

+12.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.2%0-21.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-01.6%1-13.6%1-23.9%1-32.8%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.5%2-15.5%2-25.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.6%3-15.5%3-26.0%3-34.4%3-4+3.9%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-19.0%4+-29.8%4+-37.1%4+-4+6.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 59.9% 1.67 -12.7%

Draw 22.1% 23.1% 4.33 -2.6%

Away win 25.5% 28.6% 3.50 -6.5%

Over 2.5 79.0% 73.5% 1.36 +7.4%

Over 3.5 76.5% 54.1% 1.85 +41.5%

BTTS 66.7% 73.5% 1.36 -9.3%

Home O1.5 80.8% 71.9% 1.39 +12.3%

Away O1.5 63.8% 44.6% 2.24 +42.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.6%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 3.1-2.2 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 2–2 5.9%

#3 3–1 5.5%

#4 2–1 5.5%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Strindheim3.1

Nardo2.2

COMBINED 5.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 76.5%

Form & verdict PPG

STRINDHEIM · PPG 2.00

NARDO · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=52.3%

Win probability 1X2

Strindheim (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -12.7%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.6%

Nardo (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Strindheim face Nardo in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Strindheim a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Nardo 26%, so Strindheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Strindheim and 2.2 for Nardo (5.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Strindheim are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.33 for Nardo. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +42.9%. This match finished 4-1.

Strindheim vs Nardo Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 2 Predictions