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Daugavpils vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 15 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 16:00

Daugavpils

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Auda

PPG 2.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.3%0-27.3%0-34.4%0-4+2.9%1 1-06.0%1-110.7%1-29.5%1-35.6%1-4+3.7%2 2-03.9%2-16.9%2-26.1%2-33.6%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.6%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.9% 29.0% 3.45 -0.2%

Draw 25.6% 27.8% 3.60 -4.7%

Away win 45.4% 54.1% 1.85 -16.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 37.0% 39.2% 2.55 -5.7%

Away O1.5 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.9%

#5 0–1✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Daugavpils1.3

Auda1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DAUGAVPILS · PPG 1.50

AUDA · PPG 2.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.29) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Daugavpils (H) 28.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -0.2%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -4.7%

Auda (A) 45.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Daugavpils face Auda in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Daugavpils a 29% chance, the draw 26% and Auda 45%, so Auda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Daugavpils and 1.8 for Auda (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Daugavpils are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.29 for Auda. This match finished 0-1.

Daugavpils vs Auda Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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