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FS Jelgava vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 15 ·Tuesday, May 26, 2026, 15:00

FS Jelgava

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Liepaja

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-111.4%0-28.7%0-34.4%0-4+2.4%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.2%2-16.5%2-25.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.5%3-12.3%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 29.9% 3.35 -2.3%

Draw 27.2% 28.2% 3.55 -2.1%

Away win 44.1% 52.4% 1.91 -15.8%

Over 2.5 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Over 3.5 26.3% 36.4% 2.75 -16.6%

BTTS 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Home O1.5 28.8% 38.5% 2.60 -15.1%

Away O1.5 45.1% 55.6% 1.80 -18.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.6%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.4%

#3 0–0 7.5%

#4 1–2 9.3%

#5 0–2 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FS Jelgava1.1

Liepaja1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FS JELGAVA · PPG 1.00

LIEPAJA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

FS Jelgava (H) 28.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -2.3%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -2.1%

Liepaja (A) 44.1%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -15.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FS Jelgava face Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Tuesday, May 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FS Jelgava a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Liepaja 44%, so Liepaja are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FS Jelgava and 1.5 for Liepaja (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FS Jelgava are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Liepaja. This match finished 1-1.

FS Jelgava vs Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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