Today / Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 / Union Carl Bern vs Ullern

Union Carl Bern vs Ullern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Monday, May 25, 2026, 16:00

Union Carl Bern

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Ullern

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.5%0-21.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-02.8%1-14.5%1-23.7%1-32.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.3%2-17.0%2-25.7%2-33.0%2-4+1.8%3 3-04.5%3-17.2%3-25.8%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-07.4%4+-111.9%4+-29.6%4+-35.2%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.3% — — —

Draw 20.3% — — —

Away win 20.4% — — —

Over 2.5 73.3% — — —

Over 3.5 69.0% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 81.3% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)3.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.4%

H 59% / xG 3.1-1.6 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 7.0%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 4–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Carl Bern3.1

Ullern1.6

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.3% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION CARL BERN · PPG 1.00

ULLERN · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Union Carl Bern (H) 59.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ullern (A) 20.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Carl Bern face Ullern in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1 on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Carl Bern a 59% chance, the draw 20% and Ullern 20%, so Union Carl Bern are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.1 for Union Carl Bern and 1.6 for Ullern (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Carl Bern are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Ullern. This match finished 1-0.

Union Carl Bern vs Ullern Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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