Today / Samgurali vs Iberia

Samgurali vs Iberia Prediction

Monday, May 25, 2026

Samgurali

PPG 1.57 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Iberia

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-116.4%0-210.5%0-34.4%0-4+1.9%1 1-010.0%1-112.7%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-03.9%2-14.9%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.3%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.6% — — —

Draw 30.4% — — —

Away win 45.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 15.2% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 18.2% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.6%

A 45% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 12.9%

#2 1–1 12.7%

#3 0–1 16.4%

#4 0–2 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samgurali0.8

Iberia1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMGURALI · PPG 1.57

IBERIA · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.57) vs Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Samgurali (H) 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Iberia (A) 45.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Samgurali face Iberia on Monday, May 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samgurali a 25% chance, the draw 30% and Iberia 45%, so Iberia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Samgurali and 1.3 for Iberia (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samgurali are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.88 for Iberia. This match finished 3-2.

Samgurali vs Iberia Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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