Today / Brazil - Serie C / Confianca vs Figueirense

Confianca vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 21:00

Confianca

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Figueirense

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-019.0%0-113.7%0-24.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.9%1-112.9%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-08.4%2-16.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.6%3-11.9%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.7% 52.6% 1.90 -26.5%

Draw 35.4% 31.3% 3.20 +13.3%

Away win 25.9% 25.3% 3.95 +1.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 8.7% 23.8% 4.20 -38.1%

BTTS 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 39% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 19.0%

#2 1–0 17.9%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–1 13.7%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Confianca0.9

Figueirense0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 8.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CONFIANCA · PPG 1.50

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Confianca (H) 38.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -26.5%

Draw 35.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +13.3%

Figueirense (A) 25.9%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Confianca face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Confianca a 39% chance, the draw 35% and Figueirense 26%, so Confianca are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Confianca and 0.7 for Figueirense (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Confianca are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.33 for Figueirense. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +13.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Confianca vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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