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Inter Limeira vs Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:30

Inter Limeira

PPG 0.33 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Itabaiana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-18.2%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.4%1-112.3%1-25.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.2%2-24.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.0%3-14.6%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 55.6% 1.80 -9.8%

Draw 26.1% 31.3% 3.20 -9.9%

Away win 23.7% 23.1% 4.33 +1.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 22.4% 25.6% 3.90 -7.6%

BTTS 51.6% 52.4% 1.91 -1.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 13.4%

#3 0–0✓ 8.9%

#4 2–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Limeira1.5

Itabaiana0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER LIMEIRA · PPG 0.33

ITABAIANA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.00) strong but model favors Home (P=50.1%)

Win probability 1X2

Inter Limeira (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -9.8%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.9%

Itabaiana (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Limeira face Itabaiana in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Limeira a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Itabaiana 24%, so Inter Limeira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Inter Limeira and 0.9 for Itabaiana (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Limeira are averaging 0.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Itabaiana. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Inter Limeira vs Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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