Today / Brazil - Serie C / Amazonas vs Ferroviaria

Amazonas vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Regular Season - 8 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 19:30

Amazonas

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ferroviaria

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.2% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-19.3%0-22.4%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.4%1-111.2%1-22.9%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.9%2-16.8%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-05.2%3-12.7%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.1%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 47.6% 2.10 +5.4%

Draw 28.9% 33.3% 3.00 -8.0%

Away win 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.1%

Over 2.5 35.0% 42.0% 2.38 -16.7%

Over 3.5 9.8% 22.2% 4.50 -33.5%

BTTS 46.2% 51.3% 1.95 -9.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 59%

ROI -25.7%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 50% / xG 1.2-0.5 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.4%

#2 0–0 17.7%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 2–0 12.9%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amazonas1.2

Ferroviaria0.5

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.75

FERROVIARIA · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=50.2%

Win probability 1X2

Amazonas (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.4%

Draw 28.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.0%

Ferroviaria (A) 20.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amazonas face Ferroviaria in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amazonas a 50% chance, the draw 29% and Ferroviaria 21%, so Amazonas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Amazonas and 0.5 for Ferroviaria (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amazonas are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.67 for Ferroviaria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Amazonas vs Ferroviaria Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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