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Jonkopings vs Angelholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:00

Jonkopings

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Angelholm

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.8%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.0%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 61.7% 1.62 -35.9%

Draw 25.6% 27.4% 3.65 -3.9%

Away win 34.9% 21.1% 4.75 +65.8%

Over 2.5 57.4% 54.1% 1.85 +6.2%

Over 3.5 32.4% 31.3% 3.20 +3.7%

BTTS 59.7% 55.6% 1.80 +7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 0–0 5.7%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonkopings1.5

Angelholm1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 57.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

JONKOPINGS · PPG 2.25

ANGELHOLM · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

Jonkopings (H) 39.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -35.9%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -3.9%

Angelholm (A) 34.9%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +65.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonkopings face Angelholm in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonkopings a 40% chance, the draw 26% and Angelholm 35%, so Jonkopings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Jonkopings and 1.4 for Angelholm (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonkopings are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.67 for Angelholm. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +65.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Jonkopings vs Angelholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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