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Atvidaberg vs Laholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Södra - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:00

Atvidaberg

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Laholm

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-14.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.7%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.8%2-19.8%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.6%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.3%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.1% 74.1% 1.35 -27.0%

Draw 24.2% 20.8% 4.80 +9.7%

Away win 21.7% 14.8% 6.75 +27.9%

Over 2.5 54.6% 65.4% 1.53 -16.5%

Over 3.5 32.0% 42.6% 2.35 -24.8%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 34%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.8%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.7%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atvidaberg2.0

Laholm0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ATVIDABERG · PPG 2.25

LAHOLM · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=54.1%

Win probability 1X2

Atvidaberg (H) 54.1%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -27.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +9.7%

Laholm (A) 21.7%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +27.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atvidaberg face Laholm in Sweden - Ettan - Södra on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atvidaberg a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Laholm 22%, so Atvidaberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atvidaberg and 0.8 for Laholm (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atvidaberg are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 0.75 for Laholm. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.9%. This match finished 3-1.

Atvidaberg vs Laholm Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Södra

Match Preview & Prediction

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