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AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Norra - 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 14:00

AFC Eskilstuna

PPG 0.50 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vasalund

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-15.4%0-24.1%0-32.1%0-4+1.1%1 1-06.4%1-19.8%1-27.5%1-33.8%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.9%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.5%3-15.4%3-24.1%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.7%4+-22.8%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 41.7% 2.40 +9.2%

Draw 24.1% 27.4% 3.65 -7.2%

Away win 30.4% 41.7% 2.40 -27.0%

Over 2.5 61.5% 67.6% 1.48 -9.0%

Over 3.5 43.1% 45.5% 2.20 -5.2%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -1.2%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 46% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Eskilstuna1.8

Vasalund1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC ESKILSTUNA · PPG 0.50

VASALUND · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.50), Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

AFC Eskilstuna (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +9.2%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.2%

Vasalund (A) 30.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Eskilstuna face Vasalund in Sweden - Ettan - Norra on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Eskilstuna a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Vasalund 30%, so AFC Eskilstuna are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for AFC Eskilstuna and 1.5 for Vasalund (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Eskilstuna are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.50 for Vasalund. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +9.2%. This match finished 0-3.

AFC Eskilstuna vs Vasalund Prediction— Sweden - Ettan - Norra

Match Preview & Prediction

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