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Riga FC vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Regular Season - 15 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 12:00

Riga FC

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Super Nova

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-12.8%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.7%1-17.2%1-23.9%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-19.3%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.0%3-24.3%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-19.5%4+-25.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 89.3% 1.12 -33.4%

Draw 20.9% 14.8% 6.75 +24.6%

Away win 19.6% 6.3% 16.00 +128.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 49.7% 51.8% 1.93 -4.1%

BTTS 59.7% 48.8% 2.05 +22.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 65%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.6-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.6%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 3–1 8.0%

#5 3–0✓ 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riga FC2.6

Super Nova1.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 49.7%

Form & verdict PPG

RIGA FC · PPG 2.33

SUPER NOVA · PPG 1.88

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Riga FC (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -33.4%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +24.6%

Super Nova (A) 19.6%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +128.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riga FC face Super Nova in Latvia - Virsliga on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riga FC a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Super Nova 20%, so Riga FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Riga FC and 1.1 for Super Nova (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riga FC are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.88 for Super Nova. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +128.2%. This match finished 3-0.

Riga FC vs Super Nova Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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