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Astorps FF vs Vastra Frolunda Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 9 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 11:00

Astorps FF

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Vastra Frolunda

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 71% chance

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-13.7%0-24.9%0-34.3%0-4+5.3%1 1-02.3%1-16.0%1-28.0%1-37.0%1-4+8.7%2 2-01.9%2-14.9%2-26.5%2-35.7%2-4+7.1%3 3-01.0%3-12.7%3-23.5%3-33.1%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.6%4+-22.0%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.4% 41.7% 2.40 -23.4%

Draw 21.7% 26.7% 3.75 -11.2%

Away win 52.9% 41.7% 2.40 +27.0%

Over 2.5 68.3% 71.4% 1.40 -4.4%

Over 3.5 61.6% 50.0% 2.00 +23.2%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob63.0%

A 53% / xG 1.6-2.6 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 1–3 7.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astorps FF1.6

Vastra Frolunda2.6

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 61.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTORPS FF · PPG 1.25

VASTRA FROLUNDA · PPG 2.33

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

71%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Astorps FF (H) 25.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.2%

Vastra Frolunda (A) 52.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Astorps FF face Vastra Frolunda in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astorps FF a 25% chance, the draw 22% and Vastra Frolunda 53%, so Vastra Frolunda are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Astorps FF and 2.6 for Vastra Frolunda (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astorps FF are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 2.33 for Vastra Frolunda. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +27.0%. This match finished 0-3.

Astorps FF vs Vastra Frolunda Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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